Eight wins. Zero goals conceded. Flawless through qualifying, then two friendlies in March, a draw with Uruguay and a loss to Japan, Wembley booing them off at the end.
Both of those things happened. The question is what to do with them.
WHAT TUCHEL HAS BUILT
The qualifying numbers are worth sitting with before the March concerns take over. Played eight, won eight. 26 goals scored. None let in. Pickford spent the campaign facing shots that barely troubled him, five on target across the whole thing, and kept all five out. Kane got nine qualifying goals, level with Tommy Lawton as the most a player has scored in any England manager’s first ten games. Spain between 2014 and 2016 are the only other European side to have kept clean sheets through ten consecutive wins. Two teams.
Albania, Latvia, Andorra, Kazakhstan, San Marino. The group is the group. But England have beaten soft qualifying groups before and shown up at tournaments with no coherent plan. The difference here is that Tuchel brought a system, and the system held. That is worth something before anyone starts catastrophising about Japan.
For the full breakdown of who Tuchel is taking to North America, see our England World Cup 2026 squad prediction and our analysis of England’s Group L opponents Croatia, Ghana and Panama.
WHAT MARCH TOLD US
Tuchel left out 11 players before the Uruguay game. The 11 are going to North America and he had already made that call. Henderson, O’Reilly, Burn, Guehi, Konsa, Rice, Anderson, Rogers, Saka, Gordon, Kane. The ones who stayed were there to fight for the remaining spots and it showed in both performances.
But.
Eight players left camp before Japan. Rice and Saka went back to Arsenal. Stones had a knock. Wharton and Madueke went down injured during the Uruguay draw. Ramsdale, Tomori, and Calvert-Lewin were all told to go home. The squad Tuchel had named was half-empty before kick-off at Wembley.
Kane sat out with a training knock. Without him England had no shots on target in the first half. None. Foden started as a false nine because Tuchel has been interested in the idea and it failed comprehensively. He had the fewest touches of any England starter, contributed nothing going forward, and was taken off on the hour. Tuchel said afterwards: “if we put offensive players on the pitch, we demand offensive actions, creativity, dribbling, shots and assists and we clearly didn’t have enough.” That was about Foden and Palmer. Palmer gave the ball away for Mitoma’s goal.
Anderson was the one England player who emerged from the two games with his reputation enhanced. The rest of the afternoon was forgettable.
The ground jeered them off. A full house on a Tuesday night in March, the last England game at Wembley before the tournament, and it ended with people heading for the exits before the whistle and others staying only to boo.
THE FIRST XI AND WHAT IT CAN DO
Pickford. Livramento. Guehi. Konsa. O’Reilly. Anderson. Rice. Saka. Bellingham. Rogers. Kane.
This group is considerably better than whatever took the pitch against Japan. The structure is there when the right personnel are in it. Kane at a tournament with Tuchel coaching him is not the same player as Kane rested in a March friendly. They did two years together at Bayern Munich. 44 goals in 45 games. Tuchel built everything around him there and did the same from his first day with England.
The qualifying record still stands for something even against soft opposition. Five shots on target across eight games is not a lucky run. That is a press that works, a shape that doesn’t break, and a goalkeeper who stays ready behind a defence that rarely lets anything through. Pickford had very little to do. The structure made sure of it.
THE THINGS THAT COULD GO WRONG
The injury list from March is the honest concern. Rice, Saka, Stones, Madueke, and Wharton all left camp before the Japan game. Some of those are central to how the system functions. Saka and Rice together are the two most important players in Tuchel’s England, the press trigger and the engine. If either goes into June not fully fit, it changes the group opener against Croatia in a way that matters.
Tuchel said it plainly after Japan: “In the absence of Harry Kane, we don’t have the same threat.” He was talking about the friendly but the point applies everywhere. Kane injured is England without their entire attacking identity. The Japan game without him proved it. No focal point, no reference, nothing happening in the first 45 minutes.
The depth concern is also real. Foden looked lost against Japan. Palmer was peripheral. The second tier of the squad did not make cases for themselves in March and nobody on the bench made Tuchel’s selection decisions harder. Six or seven spots behind the nailed-on XI and England get thin quickly.
THE VERDICT
Yes, with conditions.
The first XI, when fit and together, is good enough to compete with anyone in this tournament outside of France, Brazil, and Spain. The system makes sense. Kane under a manager who genuinely understands him is a serious threat, and the qualifying record reflects a team that does not give goals away easily.
Injuries, depth, tournament history. Those are the three concerns going into June and none of them are trivial. This squad is better than 2018. The structure makes more sense than 2024. The manager fits the job in a way the previous ones did not. Whether that combination is finally enough is the question English football has been asking for twenty years.
Dallas on June 17. Win it with the first XI fit and functioning and this England side can go deep. Lose it and the old questions come flooding back.
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