Real Madrid knocked them out before the quarter-finals. Manchester United won at the Etihad. Forest and West Ham both took points there too. For a spell in January and February, this looked like a team that had lost the thread entirely. Then Bournemouth beat Arsenal on Saturday, City put three past Chelsea on Sunday, and here we are again.
Six points. Game in hand. Guardiola doing that thing he does.
WHAT CITY NEED
Win all seven and the title is theirs, but there is a catch people are not talking about enough. Arsenal’s goal difference is +38. City’s is +35. Three goals in it. If both sides win their remaining games, it does not go to points. It goes to that. So City need to not just win but to keep scoring, keep the margins healthy, and hope Arsenal drop something somewhere along the way.
Win Sunday and all of that recalculates. Guardiola called it a “final” in his press conference after Chelsea. He was not wrong.
THE FIXTURES
Burnley on Wednesday. 19th, Parker clinging on, Guardiola has been to Turf Moor eight times and his side lost once. Move on.
Everton away on 4 May is not as straightforward as it looks. The Hill Dickinson Stadium only opened this season. Everton have lost two of their last seven at home there. Moyes has them well-organised and the crowd is loud and new and gets behind the team in a way Goodison used to. City won 2-0 at the Etihad back in October. Means nothing on Merseyside in May.
Brentford at home on the 9th. Andrews’ side want Europe and they will not come and park the bus, but they are also not going to cause City real problems at a ground where City have won 11 of 15 this season. Haaland scored the only goal at Brentford in the reverse fixture. This one is fine.
Bournemouth away on the 17th is where it gets interesting. They have beaten Liverpool and Arsenal this season already. Semenyo, who City paid £64m for in January, scored in his last game for them before leaving and has six goals and two assists since. He goes back to the Vitality as a visitor. Iraola builds teams that do not care who they are playing, and the Vitality in May against a side chasing a title is not a comfortable afternoon for anyone.
Villa on the final day. Fourth place, Champions League place at stake, Emery’s side will be absolutely at it. In 2021/22 City were 2-0 down at half-time at Villa Park before Gundogan turned it around. That was four years ago and they got away with it. The equation might not be so generous next time.
Crystal Palace is still floating around without a date. Glasner is leaving, Conference League is the focus, City stuffed them 3-0 at Selhurst in December. Fine.
THE FA CUP
Southampton at Wembley on 25 April. Burnley Wednesday, then Wembley Saturday, then Everton Monday, if City stay in the cup, that first fortnight after Arsenal is brutal. Three games in ten days, two of them away from home, all while trying to win a title.
WHY GUARDIOLA FANCIES IT
No Champions League means no schedule chaos for the first time in months. Full weeks on the training pitch. Everyone knows what they are doing and why. After the congestion of autumn and winter, that clarity matters more than people realise.
The history is harder to argue with. 2022/23, eight points behind Arsenal with nine games left, City took 31 from the last 12. Arsenal took 21. 2018/19 they came from further back. Across every title-winning run-in under Guardiola, 73 wins from 90 games. That is not good form. That is just what they do.
Three times in four years Arsenal have been here and come up short. Everyone in that City dressing room knows it.
THE VILLA PROBLEM
Most of this list is very winnable. Burnley is almost certainly three points. Brentford at home should be too. Even Bournemouth and Everton, for a City side in this form, are manageable.
Villa on the last day needing a result is different. That fixture has history and Emery is not a manager who lets his team lie down for anyone. 2021/22 Gundogan saved them at half-time. That result flattered how close it actually got.
Win Sunday and the run-in opens up. Lose and everything in this article stops mattering. That is where it stands.
