Mexico have done their part. Ecuador came to the Azteca and left beaten 2–0, another night Mexico did not concede. The last 16 was booked with room to spare. Now they wait. Atlanta settles the rest. One of England or DR Congo comes through this evening, and the prize is a trip to Mexico City and a packed Azteca.
Mexico have not conceded all tournament
Julián Quiñones opened the scoring against Ecuador, his third goal of the finals, and Raúl Jiménez had curled in the second before half time was up. It never looked like being anything other than a Mexico win. South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia were beaten on the way to top spot in Group A, and four games in, Raúl Rangel has still not picked the ball out of his own net.
The Azteca is the point. Two competitive defeats there since 1966. Few visiting teams cope with the noise, and Mexico will fancy this tie whoever emerges from Atlanta. Their own history nags at them, though. Mexico as hosts have twice hit the quarter-finals and stalled, in 1970 and again in 1986. This is the third crack at it in front of their own crowd.
What a Mexico tie would ask of England
For England, this is not the draw they would have wanted. On this side of the draw, there is nothing tougher left. Start with where it is played. Mexico City’s altitude drains visiting legs late in games, and the ball zips on through the thin air in a way it did not in Atlanta or Boston. Add a crowd that will treat England as the villains of the piece, add a Mexico defence nobody has breached, and the tie looks nothing like a routine last-16 fixture.
Then there is England’s own form. Tuchel’s side ground past Panama 2–0 and drew a blank against Ghana. The football has been heavy, short on the spark that saw off Croatia on the opening night. Beat DR Congo and the reward is a 1am kick-off at altitude against a team playing for a nation. Nobody in the England camp will call that a gift.
DR Congo are not done yet
DR Congo are not just making up the numbers. The only other time they qualified, in 1974 as Zaire, they lost every game and scored nothing. This time, 52 years later, DR Congo have gone further than any side the nation has sent before them. Yoane Wissa dragged them here. The Newcastle forward scored three times in the group, including the country’s first ever World Cup goal, and his stoppage-time strike sealed a 3–1 comeback against Uzbekistan that nobody outside Kinshasa saw coming.
Sébastien Desabre’s side are hard to put away. Beaten by more than one goal? Under him, it barely happens. Plenty of the squad will be familiar to English eyes. Aaron Wan-Bissaka spent last season in the Premier League, and so did Noah Sadiki and Axel Tuanzebe, while Cédric Bakambu has scored goals all across Europe. Where it falls down is up front. DR Congo do not score enough, and against a defence that kept Ghana out and shut the door on Panama, one goal may not be enough to matter. Opta’s model makes England heavy favourites, around 74% to win it inside the 90 this evening. Football has torn up longer odds.
The road beyond Mexico City
Look past Mexico and the bracket does England a quiet favour. The seeding built for this tournament means Tuchel’s side cannot meet Spain or Argentina before the semi-finals, or France before the final. That is the cushion. The catch is Brazil, or Norway, waiting in the quarter-finals in Miami, with Argentina looming somewhere beyond.
None of it matters yet. England have not got past DR Congo. Congo have not been put away easily by anyone here, and Mexico are already home in Mexico City with a clean sheet and a country behind them, watching Atlanta with real interest. So the question hanging over tonight is a plain one. Are this England team, laboured and low on goals, ready for the loudest away day of their tournament, or does the road end in the thin air of the Azteca before it has properly begun?
