Arsenal on top. Three points. City with a game in hand. Goal difference split by one goal. Win every game and the title is still not guaranteed, City have scored more goals this season, 66 to Arsenal’s 64, and that comes second in the tiebreaker after goal difference. Arsenal are ahead on GD by one. One goal. Twenty-two years of waiting potentially coming down to one goal.
Here is every game that decides it.
WHERE IT STANDS
Arsenal 73, City 70. Arsenal have played 34, City 33. One goal separates the goal differences. City have scored more. If it finishes level on points, GD settles it first. If that is also level, it goes to goals scored. City are currently ahead there. Every goal from here counts twice.
ARSENAL’S FOUR GAMES
Fulham at home – Saturday 2 May
Six points clear if Arsenal win, level if they don’t. That is the whole story. Fulham beat Aston Villa 1-0 at Craven Cottage last weekend. They are not a pushover and Silva keeps them hard to beat at home, but this is away from Craven Cottage, and on the road this season Fulham have been toothless. Arsenal have not lost a home league game since October. Win this and worry about the rest after.
West Ham away – Saturday 10 May
17th, already safe from relegation, 36 points, worst defensive record in the bottom half. Arsenal won 2-0 when West Ham came to the Emirates in October. Moyes’ side have conceded 16 more goals than they have scored this season. This should be three points. Arsenal said the same about Newcastle.
Burnley at home – Sunday 17 May
20 points. Relegated weeks ago. Already down and out before the ball rolls. Arsenal put two past them away in November without breaking sweat. The result is not in question. The margin is. With goal difference potentially deciding who gets the trophy, a 3-0 here matters more than a 1-0. Score as many as possible and move on.
Crystal Palace away – Sunday 24 May, final day
Glasner is leaving. Palace are 13th, Conference League secured, nothing riding on the final day for them. Arsenal won the home fixture 1-0 back in October. Going to Selhurst Park needing a result on the last day of the season is something this Arsenal squad has not done before, not as challengers. There is no script for what that afternoon looks like. If it comes to it, it comes to it.
Atletico Madrid in the middle of all this: Away on 29 April, home on 5 May, semi-final legs either side of the Fulham fixture. Havertz and Eze both went off injured against Newcastle. Arteta is being asked to fight on two fronts with a squad that is already down to the bone.
We covered the full reaction to Saturday’s win and what the three-point gap actually means in our Arsenal vs Newcastle breakdown.
MAN CITY’S FIVE GAMES
Everton away – Monday 4 May
City’s first ever visit to the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Moyes back in charge since January, Everton 11th, nothing to play for, but they have only lost two home games there all season. Haaland got both goals in the reverse fixture at the Etihad. City arrive on the back of Arsenal, Chelsea and Southampton all beaten. Everton on a Monday night with the whole country watching is still not Burnley.
Brentford at home – Saturday 9 May
Seventh, still chasing Europe. Brentford will come to the Etihad looking for something and they are not the sort of side that shows up and defends for 90 minutes. Haaland finished them off in the away fixture. City at home with a full week of preparation should be too strong.
Chelsea at Wembley – Saturday 16 May
Bournemouth away moved to fit this in. Guardiola has a cup final to win and four days later Aston Villa to face. He has done worse scheduling than this before and figured it out. The bigger concern is what a tight or draining cup final does to the legs going into the final week of the season.
Crystal Palace at home – date TBD
No rescheduled date yet from March. Palace 13th, nothing on the line, City beat them 3-0 at Selhurst in December. Sort the date out and it should be three points whenever it comes.
Aston Villa away – Sunday 24 May, final day
This is the one. Emery’s side are fourth, 58 points, Brighton closing and Liverpool just above. They need a Champions League result on the final day and they will be fully at it. 2021/22 at Villa Park, City were 2-0 down at the break. They got out of it. Getting out of it twice would be something else entirely.
THE THREE SCENARIOS
Arsenal win Fulham, City win Everton: three points between them, Crystal Palace game in hand still to come. Goes to the wire.
Arsenal win Fulham, City drop points at Everton: six points clear with three games each to play. Effectively done.
Arsenal slip against Fulham: City can go level on Monday night, game in hand in the bank, momentum theirs. This has happened before. May 2023. May 2024.
24 MAY
Arsenal at Selhurst. City at Villa Park. Both clubs, simultaneously, needing a result.
Wembley 1993, Highbury 2004, those are the last times Arsenal fans experienced seasons that actually meant something on the final day. Both times they already knew the result before kick-off. City meanwhile have been in this position enough times to know exactly how it feels – 2012, 2019, 2022, three different ways, three titles. That institutional knowledge of how to close a season out does not show up in any stat. It sits in the dressing room and on the touchline.
Win Fulham on Saturday. Worry about the rest after.
For all the latest Premier League title race coverage and the best ways to watch every remaining fixture live, we have everything you need heading into the final weeks of the season.
