Dalic said it publicly before the draw had even settled. The England game. That is what his whole World Cup preparation is built around. Not the tournament. Not Ghana or Panama. June 17 in Dallas specifically. He called it a fantastic occasion and you could read that two ways, as confidence or as a manager trying to give his squad something to aim at, and the honest answer is probably both at once.
England supporters do not need reminding what happened the last time these two met in a tournament that mattered. They have spent eight years not being able to fully forget it.
THE SEMI-FINAL
Trippier’s free kick went in after five minutes in Moscow and for forty minutes England were the better side. They led 1-0 at half time in a World Cup semi-final. There was a period in that second half before Perisic equalised where the Luzhniki was loud with English accents and something felt possible that had not felt possible since before most of Tuchel’s current squad were born.
Perisic’s goal came from a corner. Modric then did something that is worth understanding before June 17 because Dalic will have watched the footage of it many times. He dropped ten yards deeper than he had been in the first half. England’s press had been organised for Modric in a specific position. When he moved, the distances Southgate’s midfield needed to cover increased and the gaps behind them opened. It was not dramatic. It was gradual. That is what makes it hard to defend against. By the time England adjusted the shape had already changed and Croatia were finding space they had not been finding.
Extra time. Mandzukic ran onto a ball over the top in the 109th minute and finished. England 1-2 Croatia. One of the best chances in a generation to reach a World Cup final was over.
Modric was 32 in Moscow. He is 40 now and still plays for Real Madrid and is still going to his fifth World Cup and still runs games from midfield when teams let him. Mandzukic retired. Perisic retired. Rakitic retired. Of the players who were dangerous that night in Russia, Modric is the one still here. Kovacic is still here. Kramaric is still here. The team around them has changed but the thing that made Croatia hard to beat in 2018 is still in the squad.
EURO 2020
Sterling scored after 57 minutes at Wembley on June 13, 2021 and England won 1-0 and it was controlled and professional and Croatia were an ageing side that never got going. That result is in the record. It sits alongside Moscow in the head-to-head. Neither one cancels the other and nobody serious is pretending the 2021 Wembley game was the same test as 2018.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THIS CROATIA
Four million people. Ranked tenth in the world. Third at their first World Cup in 1998. Final in 2018. Beat Brazil on penalties in 2022 before losing to Argentina in the semis.
Livakovic saved three penalties against Brazil that night. Three. Not one or two where you might get lucky with a dive. Three. He positioned early, got low, did not panic. He is the goalkeeper England need to score against on June 17 and the way to do it is not from outside the box or with a penalty. It is delivery into the area, Kane in the air, Bellingham arriving late at the back post, the corners England have been scoring from for two seasons. Livakovic facing a cross is more beatable than Livakovic facing a shot.
Then there is Gvardiol. He broke his leg at Man City in the spring and is in the squad and Dalic has said nothing publicly about whether he starts. Croatia’s defensive structure with Gvardiol and without Gvardiol are different things. He is the player who allows the full-backs to push forward because he covers behind them. He is the player who steps out and presses in a way that makes Croatia’s shape aggressive rather than passive. Without him the line is deeper and the space in behind is larger and the instructions Tuchel gives Gordon and Rashford about running in behind change.
Kovacic is also coming back from Achilles surgery. Two of their three best players with fitness questions going into this game.
Modric is the third. He is not a fitness question. He will play. What he does on the ball at 40 is not what he did at 32 in terms of ground covered but the specific thing that made him dangerous in Moscow was never athleticism. It was positioning before the ball arrived, receiving in tight spaces, playing forward quickly before anyone could reach him. He still does that. Rice cannot be pulled out of position to close Modric down. If Rice commits and Modric plays around him the shape breaks.
DALIC’S PREPARATION
He has spent weeks getting his squad ready for Tuchel’s press. He knows how Rice sits. He knows how Bellingham looks to find space between the lines. The thing about Dalic saying publicly that this game is what his whole preparation has been about is that it removes the pretence that Croatia are approaching June 17 as just a group opener.
They need to beat England. Ghana and Panama are games Croatia will expect to win. England is the test and Dalic is not behaving as though it is anything else. Whether that creates pressure or belief in his squad probably depends on how June 17 goes.
Croatia will want the ball. They will not sit and defend. Modric cannot influence games from a passive position and Dalic knows it. They will build from Livakovic, get Modric on the ball in their own half, and move it quickly through England’s press. The first twenty minutes before England have settled into the press are the danger period. If Modric gets three or four passes in his own half early the rhythm of the game becomes Croatia’s.
The counter-attack is also real. If England’s full-backs are high and the press is on, the space behind England’s midfield is where Croatia look. It was how they shifted the momentum in 2018 and Dalic has been watching that second half footage.
JUNE 17
AT&T Stadium. Just over 100,000 people. Texas in June. Nine o’clock BST. ITV1.
England have a better squad now than 2018 and Tuchel has a clearer plan for this specific opponent than Southgate had in Moscow. The Croatia arriving in Dallas has two of its most important players at uncertain fitness and a 40-year-old midfielder who is still good enough to matter.
Win it and England control the group. Lose it and the conversation around this tournament changes in a way that is not comfortable.
England led at half time in Moscow too.
Everything else you need: Group L fixtures and TV times covering all six games and how England qualify, the complete England World Cup guide for squad, key players and prediction, and the England squad breakdown for every selection call Tuchel made. To watch free in the UK, every way to stream the World Cup is covered.